Turkey's Forever War in Syria
THE ACTORS: On one side, General Metin Gürak, Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, articulates Ankara's unwavering commitment to its military presence inside Syria. This commitment is overseen by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has consistently prioritized national security interests intertwined with geopolitical
expansion. On the other, the Syrian government in Damascus, led by Bashar al-Assad, and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). THE FUNDING: The direct financial cost of Turkey's continuous military operations in Syria, labelled 'Operation Euphrates Shield' (2016-17), 'Operation Olive Branch' (2018), and 'Operation Peace Spring' (2019), runs into billions of dollars annually. While precise
figures are opaque, these operations are funded through the Turkish national defense budget, which saw a 75% increase in 2023, reaching over $40 billion (SIPRI, 2023). This sustained expenditure is justified domestically as an investment in national security and border protection against perceived Kurdish threats. THE INCENTIVES: Turkey's primary stated incentive is the creation of a 'security
zone' to combat the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its Syrian affiliate, the People's Protection Units (YPG), which form the backbone of the SDF. However, a deeper look reveals incentives related to demographic engineering and territorial control. Turkey has facilitated the resettlement of Syrian refugees into these occupied territories, altering the demographic balance in Kurdish-majority