Tigray on the Precipice: A Recurring Cycle of Intervention
Zoom out for a second: The specter of renewed conflict hangs over Ethiopia’s Tigray region, threatening to unravel the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. This apprehension follows reports of rising tensions and a lack of full disarmament from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), alongside continued Eritrean military presence and the reintegration of Amhara forces.
While mainstream narratives frame this as an internal dispute, a deeper look reveals persistent foreign interference exacerbating regional instability. The pattern of external actors meddling in Ethiopian affairs is not new. Historically, major powers have manipulated internal divisions for strategic advantage. For instance, during the Cold War, both the Soviet Union and the United States supplied
arms and aid to various factions in the Horn of Africa, contributing to prolonged conflicts rather than sustainable peace. One significant historical parallel can be drawn to the 1961-1991 Eritrean War of Independence, where external support for both sides prolonged the conflict for three decades, costing an estimated 150,000 lives and destabilizing the wider region. The West's consistent framing
of the TPLF, a group that governed Ethiopia with an iron fist for 27 years, as a democratic bulwark against a 'volatile' central government, conveniently ignores their own history of human rights abuses and internal repression. Today, the United States, through various aid programs and diplomatic engagements, continues to exert significant influence. While officially promoting peace, its approach