The Terrorist Rebrand Cycle
Same playbook, different decade: FIRST INSTANCE: The Shifting Sands of Islamist Alliances WHEN: 1978-early 1980s WHAT: The Muslim Brotherhood, of which al-Jamaa al-Islamiya is a branch, was initially seen by some Western and regional powers as a counterweight to rising secular nationalism (e.g., Nasserism) or Soviet influence in the Middle East. For instance, the US provided indirect support to
certain Islamist factions in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion (Operation Cyclone, 1979-1989), laying groundwork for groups later deemed adversarial. OUTCOME: This period saw the rise of various Islamist groups, some of whom would later become direct adversaries, demonstrating the unintended consequences of proxy support and selective definitions. REPETITIONS: From Allies to Enemies of
Convenience WHEN: 1980s-1990s: Hamas's Early Days & Israeli Policy WHAT: During its early years, Hamas (founded 1987) was initially tolerated and even implicitly viewed by some Israeli officials as a counter to the secular Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) (Financial Times, 2011; Reuters, 2014). This strategic calculus aimed to divide the Palestinian national movement. OUTCOME: This policy
arguably contributed to Hamas's growth and eventual consolidation of power in Gaza, illustrating how short-term strategic interests can inadvertently empower future adversaries. WHEN: 2011-2015: The 'Moderate Rebel' Illusion in Syria WHAT: During the Syrian civil war, numerous state actors, including the US and its allies, supported various 'moderate rebel' groups against the Assad regime. These