The Perennial Nuclear Poker Game: Different Cards, Same House Rules
THE ACTORS: The Islamic Republic of Iran: Led by various religious and political figures, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian. Their primary internal audience is a population increasingly disaffected by economic stagnation and social restrictions, and an external audience of regional rivals and global powers. The United States Government: Comprising the executive
branch (currently led by President Biden) and key departments such as the State Department. Their primary internal audience includes a divided Congress and a public wary of foreign entanglements, and an external audience of allies seeking reassurance and adversaries requiring deterrence. THE FUNDING: Iran: The state budget is heavily reliant on oil revenues, which have been severely impacted by US
sanctions. Despite sanctions, Iran maintains significant defense spending. In 2021, Iran's military budget was estimated at $24.6 billion (IHS Jane's). This financial pressure fuels their incentive to ease sanctions while maintaining leverage. United States: The US State Department's budget, approximately $60 billion in 2023, funds diplomatic efforts. However, the overarching military-industrial
complex, which benefits from perceived threats, influences a much larger defense budget ($886 billion requested for 2024). The arms industry, represented by lobbying groups like the Aerospace Industries Association, spent over $100 million on lobbying in 2022 (Opensecrets.org). THE INCENTIVES: Iran: Seeks sanctions relief to alleviate economic hardship and shore up domestic support, while also