The Perennial Iranian Nuclear Threat: A Familiar Tune
FIRST INSTANCE: The 'Mullahs from a Nuke' Debut 1992: Benjamin Netanyahu, then a young Deputy Foreign Minister, famously declared that Iran was 'three to five years' from developing a nuclear weapon. He made this assertion in a speech to the Knesset, claiming 'there is no doubt' about their trajectory (Yedioth Ahronoth, 1992). This initial pronouncement set the stage for a recurring performance.
REPETITIONS: The Script You've Seen Before 2002: As the Bush administration ratcheted up rhetoric against an 'Axis of Evil,' Netanyahu, by then an opposition leader, warned Congress that Iran was 'developing nuclear weapons for one purpose: to use them.' He claimed they were 'months, not years' away (CNN, 2002). This occurred amidst burgeoning US diplomatic efforts to engage Tehran, which were
subsequently curtailed. 2012: A full decade later, Netanyahu, now Prime Minister, brought his renowned 'bomb cartoon' to the UN General Assembly. He declared Iran was 90% of the way to enriching enough uranium for a bomb and would cross the 'red line' by 'spring, summer at latest' (UN, 2012). This was a direct, public effort to derail the nascent P5+1 nuclear negotiations that eventually led to
the JCPOA. The Iranian program continued, yet no bomb materialized at his predicted dates. 2015: Just before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was finalized, Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress, without White House approval, urging lawmakers to reject the deal. He lambasted it as paving 'Iran’s path to the bomb' and warned of 'catastrophic consequences'