The Perennial Dance of 'Urgent' Diplomacy
The supposed 'news' from Al-Monitor, confirming US-Iran talks in Oman, isn’t new; it’s an echo. This precise dance of public saber-rattling followed by quiet, third-party-mediated diplomacy has become such a predictable cycle that setting your watch by it would be more accurate than trusting official statements. First Instance: The Genesis of the 'Secret' Channel When: The modern iteration of this
pattern can be traced back to at least 2012 , preceding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). What was claimed: Both sides maintained public positions of staunch opposition and refusal to negotiate directly, while backchannels were already active. Oman, conveniently, served as the primary, ostensibly 'neutral' intermediary. Outcome: These clandestine discussions eventually laid the
groundwork for the more formal P5+1 negotiations, culminating in the 2015 JCPOA. For a brief shining moment, it seemed diplomacy, however circuitous, could work. Repetitions: The Playbook Gets Recycled When: Post-US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 , under the Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign. What was claimed: Publicly, the US demanded a 'better deal' and piled on sanctions,
while Iran maintained that talks were impossible under duress. Curiously, reports, though often unconfirmed officially, frequently surfaced about various forms of indirect communication, again with Oman or other Gulf states playing the go-between (Wall Street Journal, 2019). Outcome: Increased regional tensions, attacks on shipping, drone shoot-downs, and a notable lack of any 'better deal.' The