The Perennial Dance of 'Serious Talks' and Perpetual Conflict
The latest iteration, according to Al-Monitor, involves Iran and the U.S. preparing for talks to 'avert a new conflict.' This isn't just déjà vu; it's practically a national sport for geopolitical observers. FIRST INSTANCE: The Secret Overtures of 1980s (and beyond) While direct, high-level public talks are more recent, backchannels between the U.S. and Iran have a long history. One could
charitably point to the infamous Iran-Contra affair in the mid-1980s as an early, albeit morally dubious, attempt at 'negotiation.' Covert arms sales in exchange for influence, facilitated by various intermediaries, demonstrated a willingness to engage despite public hostility. The outcome? Increased mistrust, a major scandal, and certainly no 'averted conflict.' (Source: Tower Commission Report,
1987) REPETITIONS: The Nuclear Brinkmanship Cycle (2000s-2015) Fast forward to the early 2000s. As Iran's nuclear program advanced, the drumbeat of 'imminent conflict' grew louder. Curiously, it was during this period that the 'Omani mediator' role truly solidified. Secret talks facilitated by Oman were instrumental in laying the groundwork for the ultimately successful Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) in 2015. The public narrative then, as now, emphasized avoiding war. Yet, even as the JCPOA was signed, rhetoric from some quarters assured us Iran was still 'months from a nuke.' This specific talking point from Netanyahu's government has been recycled for over 22 years (starting in 2002, per National Security Archive, 2014 ), and continues to this day. OUTCOMES: The 'Breakthrough'