The Perennial Brinkmanship Loop
Connect these dots: FIRST INSTANCE: The 'Mullahs Are Rational' Opening Gambit After decades of indirect communications following the 1979 revolution, President George H.W. Bush, in 1989 , publicly stated that the US was ready for a 'new relationship' if Iran altered its hostile policies. This was a signal for potential direct engagement, framed around perceived Iranian 'moderation' or
'rationality' – the first hints of the recurring 'Iran has options' narrative. The outcome? No significant shifts, but the groundwork was laid for future 'secret' or 'direct' overtures. REPETITIONS: The 'New Approach' Recycles 2003: Amidst the Iraq War, and after the 'Axis of Evil' speech, the Bush administration explored backdoor channels to Iran, notably through Swiss and British intermediaries.
The core premise was that direct dialogue might de-escalate regional tensions, including Iran's nascent nuclear activities. This was a direct, if discreet, overture. The outcome was the perception of a momentary thaw, but no lasting resolution, and the nuclear program progressed. 2013-2015: The Obama administration engaged in extensive and ultimately successful direct, secret talks with Iran,
leading to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 . This was hailed as a monumental diplomatic breakthrough, predicated on the idea that only direct engagement could resolve the nuclear standoff. The outcome was a verifiable, if temporary, halt to parts of Iran's nuclear program, which was then dismantled by the subsequent administration. 2019-2020: Post-JCPOA, and under immense