The Nuclear Treaty: From Restraint to Race
CASE A: The Expiration of New START (2024 Context) The AP reports that the New START Treaty's expiration on February 4th will remove caps on US and Russian nuclear arsenals, potentially leading to an 'unconstrained nuclear arms race.' Russian President Putin reportedly expressed readiness to extend the treaty for a year if Washington reciprocated, while the Trump administration remained
'noncommittal,' focusing on involving China. The primary concern articulated by arms control advocates is the risk of ‘global instability’ and a ‘three-way arms race’ involving China. CASE B: The Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty (2002 Context) In December 2001, President George W. Bush announced the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty of 1972, effective June 2002. This treaty
was a cornerstone of nuclear arms control, preventing the development of extensive missile defense systems that could destabilize the deterrence balance. The administration's stated reason was to 'strengthen our security and that of our allies' by developing a missile defense system against rogue states and non-state actors. National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice stated at the time , "This
treaty was a relic of the Cold War. It no longer fits the national security needs of America." THE FRAMING: Language of Necessity vs. Imprudence In 2024 (New START) , the language is largely one of regrettable inevitability and 'fear.' Terms such as 'unconstrained nuclear arms race' and 'global instability' are used. The AP's headline frames it as 'ending a half-century of arms control,' implying