The Hidden Costs of 'America First' Tariffs
CASE A: The current framing of 'America First' tariffs (Post-2018) Since 2018, the prevailing political discourse has portrayed tariffs as a strategic tool to force trade concessions and shield American workers. Politicians frequently assert that tariffs are paid by the exporting countries, thereby leveling the playing field. For example, former President Trump repeatedly stated that China was
paying billions in tariffs, claiming it was a win for the U.S. treasury (CNBC, 2019). The implicit promise is that foreign competition will be curtailed, and domestic production will flourish without significant cost to the US economy. CASE B: The historical record of tariff economics (Pre-2018) Economists have long understood that tariffs are taxes on imports that are typically passed on to
consumers or absorbed by intermediaries. A 1989 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, for instance, detailed how US consumers bear the cost of tariffs on imported goods. The consensus among mainstream economists, even prior to the recent tariff waves, was that the primary economic incidence of tariffs typically falls on the importing country (Peterson Institute for International
Economics, 2017). This understanding was largely ignored when the 'America First' policies were implemented. THE FRAMING: A deliberate misdirection. The Bloomberg article, citing the New York Fed study, notes that "US firms paid nearly 90% of the 2025 tariff costs." This directly refutes the common declaration by proponents, exemplified by statements like "China is paying us billions of dollars in