The Geopolitics of Succession: Why Post-Intervention Stability Remains Elusive
THE ACTORS The primary actors in this narrative include Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, various Libyan factions (e.g., the Government of National Unity (GNU), the Libyan National Army (LNA)), and a constellation of international states and organizations. The United Nations (UN) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) play a technical role, issuing arrest warrants that effectively remove Gaddafi from
legitimate political discourse, despite their arguable lack of enforcement capacity. Western powers, particularly France, Italy, and the United States, alongside regional players like Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and the UAE, constitute the external influence network. Saif al-Islam represented a lineage, rather than a novel political platform, a fact that threatened to dislodge the carefully constructed
disunity that benefits multiple external patrons. The perception of his re-entry destabilizing the *existing* instability was a crucial motivator for his continued marginalization. THE FUNDING The funding streams in post-2011 Libya are highly opaque, but their influence on political outcomes is undeniable. State actors like Turkey and Qatar have reportedly provided significant financial and
military support to the Tripoli-based GNU, totaling billions since 2019, extending security agreements that benefit their strategic interests (Reuters, 2020). Conversely, Egypt and the UAE have supported the LNA under Khalifa Haftar with equivalent, if not greater, resources. This external financial dependency creates a patronage network, where Libyan factions are incentivized to maintain a state