The Geopolitics of Potash: Déjà Vu All Over Again
THE CLAIM: They're 'Securing Supply' Bloomberg reports that a future Trump administration is looking to launch a $12 billion fund to build up a strategic critical-minerals stockpile, ostensibly to reduce reliance on China. The stated goal? 'Sure up supply in cases of emergency.' The implication is clear: China is a looming threat, and we must secure our supply chains to protect national interests
and, presumably, our precious tech gadgets. THE EVIDENCE: A History of Hoarding Curiously, the U.S. has maintained a Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) for decades, including minerals. Its history is a fascinating saga of overspending, underutilization, and questionable decisions. For instance, after the Cold War, much of the U.S. National Defense Stockpile, created for similar 'emergency'
scenarios, was deemed obsolete, leading to billions in losses as materials like titanium and chromium were sold off for a fraction of their acquisition cost ( GAO, 2001 ). Later, during the 2020 pandemic, the medical portion of the SNS proved woefully inadequate despite substantial prior investment, suggesting that merely 'stockpiling' isn't a silver bullet. THE CONTRADICTIONS: Who Benefits From
Scarcity? The original article notes that private-sector companies and investors are unclear about the long-term impact. One might wonder why. Perhaps it's because these ventures often create artificial demand, driving up prices for the very corporations that benefit from government contracts to supply these materials. Moreover, many of the 'critical' minerals, such as rare earths, are indeed