The Geopolitics of Gasoline on a Caribbean Island
THE ACTORS: Donald Trump Administration: Specifically, figures like then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, who aggressively targeted Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua as a 'troika of tyranny.' Cuban Government: Led by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, grappling with the immediate and long-term effects of tightened sanctions. Cuban Tourism Sector: A crucial economic lifeline, encompassing state-owned
enterprises (e.g., Gaviota Tourism Group) and, increasingly, private entrepreneurs ( cuentapropistas ). Venezuelan State Oil Company (PDVSA): Historically Cuba's primary supplier of discounted crude oil under agreements forged during the Chávez era. THE FUNDING: The 'fuel crunch' directly targets Cuba's access to foreign currency, heavily reliant on tourism (which generated approximately $3.5
billion in 2018, according to the Cuban National Office of Statistics and Information - ONEI). By restricting fuel, the U.S. aims to choke off this revenue, limiting the government's ability to fund social programs and vital imports. The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign included over 200 new sanctions against Cuba, escalating an existing embargo. For instance, in 2019, the Treasury
Department imposed penalties on vessels and companies transporting Venezuelan oil to Cuba, effectively disrupting discounted shipments. THE INCENTIVES: For the U.S. Administration: The explicit incentive, articulated by Bolton in 2019, was to 'change the regime' in Cuba. This aligns with decades of U.S. foreign policy doctrine dating back to Eisenhower's 1960 memorandum which explicitly sought to