The Geopolitical Scramble for Bangladesh: From Trade to Elections
THE CLAIM: Media reports from Bangladesh indicate a rushed process to conclude a Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement (TICFA) with the United States. This agreement, initially signed in 2013 and set for renewal, is reportedly now being fast-tracked through parliamentary approval just three days prior to the country's general election. The stated purpose is to ensure the agreement's
continuity and pave the way for Bangladesh to retain duty-free access to Western markets, particularly post-2026 graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. THE EVIDENCE: The original TICFA was signed with the explicit aim of strengthening trade and investment relations (USTR, 2013). However, the timing of its renewal and expedited ratification raises questions. Bangladesh is indeed set
to graduate from LDC status by 2026, which will remove various trade preferences, including duty-free access to some markets. The US, as a significant trading partner (Bangladesh is the 46th largest goods trading partner with $11.6 billion in total goods trade in 2022, per USTR data), holds considerable leverage in this transition. This push comes amidst escalating US pressure on Bangladesh
regarding its democratic processes and human rights record, including visa restrictions implemented in May 2023 targeting individuals undermining elections. THE CONTRADICTIONS: The expedited ratification contradicts standard diplomatic timelines for such significant agreements. Typically, trade pacts undergo extensive review and public consultation, especially in the context of an impending