The Geopolitical Orchestra of Oil
The story beneath the story: The article posits that oil's decline is due to "eased US-Iran tensions" and "hopes for Iranian crude returning to the market." This framing, while superficially plausible, obscures a history of strategically timed pronouncements synchronized with market movements. The Sanctions-for-Oil Cycle: A Timeline FIRST INSTANCE (1979-1980): Following the Iranian Revolution, the
US froze Iranian assets. While not directly about oil embargos initially, the geopolitical instability and subsequent US sanctions on Iranian oil exports (made formal in 1980) served to disrupt global supply and introduce a new variable for market manipulation. Global oil prices spiked significantly during this period, reaching over $40/barrel (adjusted for inflation, this would be closer to
$150-200 today), demonstrating the immediate and profound impact of such policy decisions. REPETITION 1 (1995): President Bill Clinton issued Executive Order 12959, imposing a comprehensive embargo on U.S. trade and investment with Iran, citing Iran's alleged support for terrorism and pursuit of WMDs. The rhetoric surrounding this period, particularly from actors like AIPAC, frequently emphasized
Iran as an 'imminent threat.' This further solidified market expectations of Iranian oil being constrained, providing a baseline for price calculations. Although specific price tumbles weren't attributed to 'eased tensions' then, the pattern of 'tension-for-sanctions' followed by calls for 'easing' was established. REPETITION 2 (2015): The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations