The Geopolitical Energy Pivot: A Familiar Resource Game
FIRST INSTANCE: Post-WWII Germany and the Quest for Energy Security (1950s-1970s) Following World War II, West Germany's economic recovery (Wirtschaftswunder) was heavily reliant on stable energy supplies, initially coal, then increasingly oil. As early as the 1950s, German industrialists and politicians recognized the vulnerability of relying primarily on domestic or regional sources. The 1973
oil crisis starkly amplified this, demonstrating the profound economic and social disruption that could result from external energy shocks. West Germany sought diversification, fostering relationships with various oil-producing nations, many of which had complex political landscapes, prioritizing supply over governance considerations. This period established the precedent that economic stability,
particularly energy stability, would frequently trump other foreign policy concerns. REPETITIONS: The Soviet Gas Gambit and its Legacy (1980s-2010s) By the 1980s, despite Cold War tensions, West Germany (and later unified Germany) began cultivating significant energy ties with the Soviet Union, notably through the development of the Siberian pipeline projects. This was a direct policy choice,
actively pursued by figures like Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in the late 1970s and early 1980s, who argued for 'Wandel durch Handel' (change through trade). Critics, particularly from the U.S. (e.g., the Reagan administration in 1981-82), warned of over-reliance on a single, potentially unstable supplier. Yet, Germany deepened this engagement, leading to a situation where, by 2021, Russia supplied