The Echo of 2011: Another Gaddafi Ghosted in Libya
THE ACTORS: Who benefits from elimination? The 'Rival Governments' (GNA & LNA): The two primary factions in Libya, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar, both nominally opposed Saif Gaddafi's return. Why? Because his presence, however 'symbolic' as mainstream analysts claim, represented a genuine, if contested,
alternative to their deeply unpopular, externally propped-up regimes. His lineage offered a nostalgic pull for many who remembered the pre-2011 stability, however authoritarian it might have been. Foreign Powers: The usual suspects – Turkey, Qatar, Russia, UAE, Egypt, France, and the US – all have vested interests in maintaining competing spheres of influence, military bases, and resource
extraction rights in a divided Libya. A unified Libya under a figure not beholden to them, especially one with a populist base, is anathema to their geopolitical chess game. Saif's potential re-entry into politics threatened to upset a carefully balanced, lucrative instability. THE FUNDING: Cash for chaos. While concrete figures linking specific bounties for Saif Gaddafi's death are, predictably,
absent from public record, the proxies operating in Libya are awash in foreign cash. The GNA, for instance, has received substantial financial and military aid from Turkey, reportedly totaling billions (SIPRI, 2021 estimates). The LNA is bankrolled by the UAE, Egypt, and Russia, again to the tune of billions in military hardware and financial support (UN Panel of Experts reports, various years).