The Chemical War Playbook Resurfaces
THE ACTORS: Who is involved in this story? The primary actors are the Lebanese government, represented by President Michel Aoun, and the government of Israel. Hezbollah, a major political and military force in Lebanon, is often implicitly part of any discussion regarding Israeli military actions in the south. The alleged victims are Lebanese farmers and residents in southern Lebanon. THE FUNDING:
Where does their money come from? The Israeli military budget receives substantial financial assistance from the United States. For example, in 2016, the Obama administration signed a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding providing $38 billion in military aid to Israel (US Department of State, 2016). This funding subsidizes everything from advanced weaponry to operational costs. Lebanese government
funding, in contrast, is severely constrained by a deep economic crisis, exacerbated by corruption and regional instability, leaving it reliant on international aid packages that often come with strict conditions. THE INCENTIVES: What do they gain from this narrative? For the Lebanese government, highlighting these alleged actions serves to rally international and domestic support against Israeli
'aggression' and underscores the vulnerability of its agricultural sector and population. For Israel, if the allegations are true, the incentive to use chemical defoliants would be to clear vegetation that could provide cover for militant groups (like Hezbollah) operating near the border. However, such actions also serve as a form of collective punishment and economic disruption, making life