The Art of the 'Deal': Trading Sanctions for Favors
Trump's Tariff Tango: Geopolitics as a Bargain Bin THE ACTORS: US President Donald Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, major oil companies (both Russian and US-aligned). THE FUNDING: The direct financial implications here are less about a single funding source and more about economic leverage. Tariffs, like the recently reduced US duties on Indian goods (now 18%), represent significant
revenue streams and market access barriers. The value of India's import market for oil, for instance, is enormous – India imported over $150 billion in oil in 2022-23 (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2023). Shifting this away from Russia and towards US-friendly suppliers (or at least, away from sanctioned ones) reroutes hundreds of billions of dollars in economic activity. THE INCENTIVES:
For Trump, it's a win-win: he can claim a 'win' against Russia's energy exports while appearing to boost US-India trade relations and secure geopolitical alignment. For Modi, it's about navigating complex international pressure while securing favorable economic terms for India's export-driven economy. The implicit incentive for US energy companies is increased market share for non-Russian oil. THE
NETWORK: This isn't just about two leaders. It connects global energy markets, sanctions regimes, and international trade bodies. The 'understanding' for India to cease Russian oil purchases directly undermines a key revenue source for Russia, a country currently under extensive Western sanctions following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This effectively weaponizes trade policy to achieve foreign