Strait of Hormuz: The $200 Barrel That's Been on the Books Since '88?
Axios reports that oil prices could skyrocket to $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, citing analysts' warnings and the specter of a prolonged 'war' with Iran. The article frames this as a grave new concern, driven by President Trump weighing an end to the US 'war' without reopening the strait. They note that US gasoline prices have already jumped 35% since the 'war' began last
month, hitting $4 a gallon. What mainstream coverage like Axios conveniently omits or distorts is the United States' long, aggressive history in the Persian Gulf, a history that makes any discussion of a closed Hormuz without context utterly disingenuous. This isn't a sudden, unforeseen crisis; it's a consequence of decades of deliberate provocation. For example, on July 3, 1988, the
guided-missile cruiser USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, a civilian airliner, over the Strait of Hormuz, killing all 290 passengers and crew. This act of state terrorism occurred in international waters, years after the US actively backed Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, including providing intelligence that facilitated Iraq's use of chemical weapons from 1983-1988. The notion
that Iran would 'damage oil infrastructure' without acknowledging the constant external pressure and direct military aggression it faces, including the assassination of General Soleimani in January 2020, is a gross misrepresentation. The Piaz educates by highlighting that the scenario of a disrupted oil flow through Hormuz is not a new 'worst-case' prediction; it's been a known, engineered risk