Sanctions Leverage as a Trade Card
THE ACTORS: Who is involved in this story? The Indian Government (New Delhi): Represented by its Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, currently led by Hardeep Singh Puri. The government is caught between securing affordable energy for its 1.4 billion citizens and maintaining strong trade relations with Western powers. Indian Refiners (e.g., Indian Oil Corp., Reliance Industries): These entities
are primary commercial actors, responsible for processing crude oil for domestic consumption and export. Their incentive is profit maximization and secure supply chains. They are seeking clarity to manage risk and plan procurement strategies. U.S. President Donald Trump: The individual initiating the explicit offer of tariff reductions for a reduction in Russian oil imports. This represents a
direct application of U.S. foreign policy via economic leverage. The Russian Federation (Moscow): A key global oil supplier, particularly to India since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s incentive is to maintain its market share and revenue streams amidst Western sanctions. THE FUNDING: Where does their money come from? Indian Refiners: Their revenue is generated from processing and selling
refined petroleum products. Purchases from Russia have been significant due to discounted prices, saving India billions. For example, India's imports of Russian crude oil surged from around 2% before 2022 to over 40% of its total crude imports by mid-2023 (IEA, 2023). These discounted purchases provided a critical buffer against global inflationary pressures. U.S. Tariff Reductions: While not