Riyadh's Red Sea Gambit
When mainstream outlets report on Saudi Arabia’s new military cooperation agreement with Somalia, they often frame it as a mutual commitment to regional stability. This narrative ignores Riyadh’s consistent pattern of securing geopolitical advantage through significant financial disbursements, a playbook evident across the Horn of Africa and beyond. The deal arrived weeks after Somaliland’s
controversial port agreement with Ethiopia, which could grant the landlocked nation Red Sea access, thereby disrupting existing regional power dynamics. This is not altruism. Saudi Arabia has deployed similar tactics before, notably its engagement in Yemen since 2015, where alleged security concerns masked a broader strategy to control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint for global oil
shipments. By fostering military relationships on the African side of the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia replicates its long-standing approach of entangling nations in dependency, leveraging its vast oil wealth to ensure its strategic imperatives are met. This also serves as a counterbalance to the influence of other Gulf states and regional rivals emerging on the international stage. The financial
component, though undisclosed, will undoubtedly serve as the adhesive for this alliance. Such 'aid' consistently translates into diplomatic and military alignment, as seen in Riyadh's 2017 push for an 'Arab NATO' against Iran, which saw several African nations receive direct financial incentives for participation or alignment. What appears as a security partnership is, in fact, a calculated