Pre-Negotiation Attacks: A Familiar Blueprint for Coercion
THE ACTORS: The primary actors are the Russian Federation's military and diplomatic apparatus, specifically President Vladimir Putin and his negotiating team, engaging with Ukrainian counterparts and international mediators. The reporting, however, primarily frames Russia as the singular aggressor, obscuring the complex power dynamics of such negotiations. THE FUNDING: Russia's military budget for
2024 is projected to be approximately 10.8 trillion rubles (around $120 billion USD), representing about 6% of its GDP and a 70% increase from 2023 levels (SIPRI, 2024). This sustained investment in military capacity directly funds the operations being reported. Ukraine, meanwhile, remains heavily dependent on external military aid, with the US alone providing over $75 billion in assistance since
February 2022 (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). THE INCENTIVES: For Russia, the incentive is to improve its negotiating stance by demonstrating continued military capability and control over territory, and inflict sufficient damage to gain concessions. This creates a perceived 'cost of not settling' for the Ukrainian side. For Ukraine and its allies, the incentive is to project strength and
unity, while simultaneously seeking a diplomatic resolution. The media's incentive is to highlight perceived aggression, reinforcing existing narratives of the conflict. THE NETWORK: The network involves Moscow, Kyiv, and various international intermediaries, including the United Nations and other regional powers facilitating communication. News outlets like Newsweek operate within a broader media