Someone Made $1 Million Betting on Iran Strikes Before They Happened — And Nobody in Washington Wants to Investigate
The $1 Million War Bet Here is what we know: an anonymous trader, operating through Polymarket's international website, has made close to $967,000 since 2024 by placing dozens of accurate five-figure bets on US and Israeli military actions against Iran. Their accuracy rate on classified military operations? 93 percent. According to CNN's analysis, conducted with blockchain analytics firm
Bubblemaps, the trader placed bets just hours before: Israeli strikes on Iran in October 2024 US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 The joint US-Israeli attack in February 2026 that started the current war "Having win rates in the 80% to 90% range is just too good to be true," said Todd Phillips, a finance professor and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission advisory board
member. Eight Wallets, One Pattern The Guardian separately reported that eight newly created Polymarket accounts wagered a total of $70,000 on an Iran ceasefire before the end of March — bets that could result in an $820,000 payoff . The accounts were created around March 21, the exact period when Trump took to Truth Social and said the US was considering "winding down" military operations. Ben
Yorke, a former researcher with Cointelegraph, told The Guardian the pattern was textbook: "When you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it's one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading." Then came the House of Saud report: ten anonymous cryptocurrency wallets appeared on Polymarket