Oil Flows and War Drums: The Gulf's Calculus in US-Iran Tensions
Reports suggesting Gulf petrostates are rushing to export crude oil in anticipation of a US military strike against Iran paint a picture of reactive opportunism. This narrative subtly normalizes the prospect of war. It ignores the deeply ingrained patterns of leverage and destabilization that precede such escalations. The underlying premise is that a US attack is not just plausible but almost
inevitable, positioning Gulf states as pragmatic actors adjusting to an external inevitability, rather than participants in a complex geopolitical game. This current maneuvering echoes historical precedents where external powers have dictated regional dynamics for resource control. Consider the 1965 "Operation Cyclone" in Indonesia. There, US and British intelligence facilitated a military coup
that overthrew President Sukarno, leading to the murder of an estimated 500,000 to one million alleged communists. This event secured Western access to Indonesia's vast natural resources, particularly oil and minerals, effectively crushing a non-aligned, nationalist government. The parallel lies in the West's consistent pattern of intervening to secure energy interests and regional hegemony, often
through violent shifts in leadership or direct conflict. The US maintains an extensive military presence in the Persian Gulf, including Naval Forces Central Command headquartered in Bahrain. This offers persistent pressure on Iran and guarantees energy flow for Western markets, regardless of the human cost. The notion that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are simply hedging against market