Nuclear Brinkmanship: The Greatest Show on Earth
The drumbeat of 'nuclear treaty expiration equals global catastrophe' is a well-rehearsed symphony, one that has been performed with remarkable consistency, if not originality, for decades. Let's pull back the curtain on this particular kabuki theater. FIRST INSTANCE: The Cold War Stalemate (1979 - SALT II) The Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty II (SALT II), signed in 1979, aimed to cap MIRV
warheads and strategic bombers. It was never ratified by the U.S. Senate, largely due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and a prevailing narrative that the USSR couldn't be trusted. The 'risk' then was perceived Soviet expansionism and a potential arms race. What actually happened? The Cold War continued its predictable course, punctuated by a massive Western military buildup and a nascent
'Star Wars' initiative. The arms race intensified, sure, but the apocalypse remained stubbornly on hold. REPETITIONS: The ABM Treaty Charade (2002) Fast forward to 2002, when the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty signed in 1972. President George W. Bush cited concerns about rogue states and the need for missile defense. Cue the hand-wringing from Russia and
parts of the international community about a new arms race. Curiously, the very same 'global security risk' alarms were sounded. The outcome? Russia continued its strategic modernization, the U.S. pursued its missile defense systems, and the world didn't end. Instead, it seems to have paved the way for subsequent 'treaty expiration' narratives. REPETITIONS: The INF Treaty Squabble (2019) More