Nuclear Brinkmanship as Political Lever
THE CLAIM: Former President Trump advocates for a modernized nuclear treaty involving China, asserting the expired New START agreement (February 2026) is antiquated and insufficient for contemporary geopolitical realities. This narrative implies that his administration would be uniquely positioned to negotiate a more comprehensive and stable arms control framework. THE EVIDENCE: The New START
treaty, signed in 2010 and extended once in 2021 for five years, capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs, as well as their delivery systems, for the US and Russia. Its expiration on February 5, 2026, officially marks the end of the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. Data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) indicates
that as of early 2023, the US and Russia collectively possess over 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, accounting for approximately 10,000 warheads total, with around 2,000 actively deployed (FAS, 2023). China, while expanding its arsenal, maintains an estimated 400-500 warheads, a fraction of the US and Russian stockpiles. THE CONTRADICTIONS: Trump’s current stance contrasts sharply with his
administration's actions during its initial term. In 2018, his administration withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing Russian violations, a move that critics argued destabilized European security without achieving a new, broader agreement. Furthermore, his administration declined to extend New START in 2020 without China's inclusion, a condition Russia deemed