FT Discovers Invasion Only Counts When It's Not Ours
The mainstream line, as parroted by outlets like the FT, centers on the 'dispute' over whether the 2020 'Operation Gideon'—a botched coup attempt involving ex-Green Berets and Venezuelan dissidents to kidnap/kill President Maduro—was an 'invasion.' Apparently, private mercenaries launching a sea-borne assault to topple a head of state is a nuanced 'dispute,' not, say, a textbook act of aggression.
This conveniently sidesteps the U.S. government's 2019 indictment of Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, followed by placing a $15 million bounty on his head—actions that, critics argue, significantly fueled the mercenary operation. One might call that a rather direct prelude to said 'dispute.' So, the question isn't whether it was an invasion, but whether Polymarket's 'invasion' metric accounts
for plausible deniability (aka, political cowardice). Next, we'll consult prediction markets on whether up is down, or if the sky is, in fact, turquoise. It certainly shifts the burden of proof from international norms to unregulated speculative platforms. Who needs the UN when Wall Street has spoken?