Another Cartel 'Kingpin' Down: The Endless Cycle of Violence
What's actually happening: Mexico is bracing for more violence, schools are shuttered, and foreign governments are issuing warnings because the army killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, better known as "El Mencho," leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. This isn't a new script. Cast your mind back to 2014 when Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán was captured. The pronouncements of decisive victory
soon gave way to increased infighting and new, often more brutal, factions vying for control. History, it seems, has a morbid sense of humor, or perhaps just a very short memory in the corridors of power. This predictable cycle of 'kingpin strategy' has consistently failed to address the systemic issues fueling cartel power. The billions poured into this strategy from both the US and Mexican
governments, including over $3.3 billion from the U.S. Merida Initiative alone since 2008, have demonstrably not reduced the flow of illicit drugs or the violence associated with it. Instead, we see a hydra-headed problem where one boss replaced by two, often leading to more fragmentation and bloodshed. The logic seems to be that removing a leader somehow dismantles the sophisticated,
multi-billion dollar enterprises built on corruption, addiction, and geopolitical convenience. It never does. A document from 1986, declassified decades later, revealed US intelligence had assessed that the removal of top cartel figures often led to, rather than prevented, increased violence as new leaders emerged, often more ruthlessly, to fill the void. Yet here we are, decades later, trotting